To get there, scientists and the United Nations say the world needs to cut its current emissions by about half as of 2030. That’s about 11 years worth left at current levels - which are rising not falling - the report found. A report a few days ago from Global Carbon Project found that there’s 420 billion tons of carbon dioxide left in that budget and this year humanity spewed 36.4 billion tons. Scientists calculate carbon pollution the burning of fossil fuels can produce before 1.5 degrees is baked in. Scientists usually mean a multi-year average of over 1.5 because temperatures - while rising over the long term like on an escalator - do have small jags up and down above the long-term trend, much like taking a step up or down on the escalator. The issue isn’t about the one year when the world first averages 1.5 more than pre-industrial times. The world has warmed 1.1 degrees (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times. That’s because it may sound like another 1.5 degrees from now but because it is since pre-industrial times, it’s actually only 0.4 degrees (0.7 degrees Fahrenheit) from now. Then on Saturday he said the conference, which takes a break on Sunday, was still trying “to keep 1.5 alive.”įor protesters and activists, the phrase is “1.5 to stay alive.”Īnd 1.5 is closer than it sounds. The 1.5 figure now it is the “overarching objective” of the Glasgow climate talks, called COP26, conference President Alok Sharma said on the first day of the conference. Stopping warming at 1.5 or so can avoid or at least lessen some of the most catastrophic future climate change harms and for some people is a life-or-death matter, scientists have found in many reports. It’s a somewhat confusing number in some ways that wasn’t a major part of negotiations just seven years ago and was a political suggestion that later proved to be incredibly important scientifically. That stands for the international goal of trying to limit future warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times.

Glasgow, Scotland (AP) - One phrase, really just a number, dominates climate talks in Glasgow, Scotland: The magic and elusive 1.5.

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